By Abhinav Parmar
(Reuters) – A pick up in intermodal and vehicle shipment volumes combined with higher pricing are expected to blunt the impact from slowing coal demand on second-quarter earnings for US railroad companies.
There has been a sequential improvement in industry carloads, led by intermodal, which involves shipping goods via two or more modes of transportation, and automotive shipments, analysts said, even as the industry grapples with an overall freight downturn underway since 2022.
“International intermodal appears to be benefiting from strong import trends, partly reflecting an up-tick in retailer restocking,” Morningstar analyst Matthew Young said.
However, the spillover impact from depressed rates in the competing truckload industry could still limit intermodal revenue.
Overall, strong pricing should be beneficial for rail companies, analysts said.
“We believe core pricing has held up relatively well, and expect pricing increases to be a contributor for growth in the quarter,” Stephens analyst Daniel Imbro said.
Slowing coal demand, driven by global decarbonization efforts remain a headwind, likely exacerbated by a brief disruption to exports due to the Baltimore bridge collapse, remains a drag, analysts said.
While metallurgical coal export volumes during the quarter are expected to be similar to last year, thermal coal volumes could show a year-on-year dip, they added.
Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern are scheduled to report earnings on July 25, while CSX reports on Aug. 5.
THE FUNDAMENTALS
** Analysts expect Union Pacific’s quarterly profit to rise 7.1% to $2.72 per share, revenue to rise 1.8% to $6.07 billion from a year ago, as per LSEG data.
** Norfolk Southern is expected to post a 2% fall in per share profit to $2.89, revenue seen rising 1.9% to $3.04 bln from a year ago.
** Analysts expect CSX’s profit to fall by 2% to $0.48 per share, revenue to fall 0.1% to $3.69 bln from the previous year.
(Reporting by Abhinav Parmar in Bengaluru; Editing by Arpan Varghese and Shailesh Kuber)
